So, finally an act of unvarnished predatory action by Trump and his team -- the abduction of President Maduro in a lightning night-time military strike -- has launched 2026 into a pivotal moment. A pivotal moment not just for Latin America, but for global politics.
The ‘Venezuela method’ is aligned with Trump’s ‘business first’ approach which is rooted in constructing a ‘financial reward system’, whereby diverse stakeholders to a conflict are offered financial benefits that permit the US to (ostensibly) achieve its own objectives, whilst locals continue to extract rewards from the exploitation of (in this case) Venezuelan resources -- under US close supervision.
In this template, the US does not need to create a new governing régime from scratch, nor put ‘boots on the ground’ — for Venezuela, the plan is that the existing government of the newly-sworn in President, Delcy Rodriguez, will remain in control of the country -- so long as she follows Trump’s wishes. Should she or any of her ministers fail to follow that blueprint, they will receive the ‘Maduro treatment’, or worse. Reportedly, the US has already threatened Venezuela’s Interior Minister, Diosdado Cabello, that he will be targeted by Washington unless he helps President Rodriguez meet US demands.
Put another way, the plan comes down to a single underpinning premise that the only thing that matters is the money.
In this context, the US approach to Venezuela resembles that of a Vulture Hedge Fund ‘buy-out’: Remove the CEO and co-opt the existing management team with money to run the company to new dictates. In Venezuela’s case, Trump likely hopes that Rodriguez (who has been ‘talking’ with Secretary Rubio via the Qatari royal family, and who is also the Minister responsible for the oil industry) has squared off all the factions that compose the Venezuelan power structure to accept the relinquishment of state sovereign resources to Trump.
What is so pivotal here is the shedding of all pretence: The US is in a debt crisis and wishes to seize -- for exclusive US use -- Venezuelan oil. Submission to Trump’s demand is the only variable that matters. All masks are off. A Rubicon has been crossed...